Admitting the Fog            

2026 does not feel easy to predict.    

That might seem like a strange way to start a predictions piece, but here we are. And it’s not just me. Capital is cautious. Investors are sitting on the sidelines. Everyone is watching AI like a weather system they can't quite read.  

This doesn't feel like another trend cycle. It feels like a platform transition, where the ground shifts beneath you and you don't realize how much has changed until you look back years later.  

The hardest part isn't the uncertainty. It's the certainty that the ground is moving. You just don't know yet what falls and what stays standing.    

The Games Industry Macro    

The big players are playing defense. You can see it everywhere: project cancellations, studio closures, retrenchment into known IP. AAA risk tolerance is at historic lows. Experimentation has slowed at the top.

This creates whitespace. But here's the tension: there's more opportunity structurally, but less capital tactically.

Funding is constrained. Expectations are higher than ever. Small teams are expected to ship faster, cheaper, and with clearer proof of traction before anyone writes a check.

This favors experienced teams. Strong pipelines. Pragmatic scope. ‍

1) The market will slowly start to thaw in 2026, but at lower price points and tighter terms.

AI as a Production Multiplier

I've spent a lot of time trying to figure out how to talk about AI without falling into the usual traps; breathless hype on one side, reflexive dismissal on the other.    

Where I've landed is pretty simple.    

I've seen enough genuinely clever implementations from small teams that I can't sit on the fence anymore. Teams of two, three, four people doing things that honestly wouldn't have been possible a few years ago. Not because AI is replacing them, but because it's removing friction everywhere.    

Prototyping faster. Iterating on a broader set of ideas. Finding creative territory that simply didn't exist before.  

At some point you stop calling it potential and start calling it the new baseline.    

At the same time, I don't believe AI suddenly lets people make great games on their own. I've seen plenty of fully AI-built games. They exist. They're…interesting. But not very good.

And that distinction matters.    

AI is a platform shift, yes, but it's still just a probability engine that can reason. It can help you move faster. Explore more. Get unstuck.    

What it can't do is replace human taste or creative vision.  

Those remain the bottleneck. And honestly? I think that's a good thing.

So here's the practical side: AI helps small teams explore faster, but shipping still requires experienced humans at the right moments. Keeping teams lean means pulling in expertise surgically, not scaling headcount permanently.

‍2) External development becomes the way small teams stay fast without losing taste or control.    

Cooling Off the AI Culture War  

Consumer backlash is real, but I think it's driven more by fear of change and ragebait incentives than by reality. AI is a tool, but it doesn't have intent or authorship. Those still belong to us.

Over time, I believe players will care more about the experience than the method. The loud controversy will fade as practical use becomes normalized. AI will quietly integrate into workflows rather than dominate headlines.

3) We'll look back and wonder what all the noise was about.    

Games Expanding Beyond Traditional Formats

I'm less interested in the PC vs. console vs. mobile debate these days. What excites me is the question of what kinds of experiences are now possible.

"Friend Slop" burst onto the scene in 2025 and captures something real. It's not about polished, solitary experiences. It's about giving groups of friends fun, shared moments. Low friction, high connection.

We're seeing growth in hybrid hardware, toys, tabletop, and physical-digital blends. Play is becoming more ambient, shared, and experiential.

‍4) Successful games will increasingly live across devices, rooms, input formats and social contexts.  

What This Means for Builders

There's been a lot of discussion about the increased competition for player attention. The exploding number of new releases. Calcified top charts. The gravitational pull of evergreen games like Fortnite, Roblox, and other massive network-effect-driven platforms.  

All of that is true.

Breaking into those ecosystems is brutally hard. In many cases, it's not even the right goal anymore.

I think the biggest opportunity for new builders isn't to break in. It's to break out.    

Consumers will always seek new and novel experiences. That hasn't changed. What's changed is how those experiences get created. AI isn't going to invent novelty on its own. Human ingenuity still owns that.

What AI does is expand the space of what's possible for small teams. It lets builders explore ideas that would have been too risky, too slow, or too expensive before. It lowers the cost of experimentation. It makes weird ideas feasible.

The question for builders is no longer how do we compete with incumbents? It's how do we create something meaningfully different for players?

That difference might be format. It might be context. It might be where and how play happens. But it won't come from chasing genres or iterating on known formats.  

"Do more with less" isn't temporary. It's the new baseline. But doing more doesn't mean doing the same thing faster. It means finding new experiences that only become possible with the tools we now have.

Less Prediction, More Posture    

2026 isn't about calling winners and losers. It's about positioning for volatility and compounding learning.

5) The teams that survive won't be the loudest or the biggest. They'll be the most adaptive, the most disciplined, and the most grounded in reality.    

I don't know exactly what's coming. But I intend to be ready when it arrives.